Three Little Words
Written by David Hall, ESG Advisory Lead, mha
Three little words I recently heard filled me with dread.
The occasion was a speech by Donald Trump, ex-president of the US, as he fought with Joe Biden to become the 47th (and 45th) president.
The three words were ‘drill, drill, drill’.
Trump has built his reputation and following on a promise to return the USA to its glory days when industry boomed across the so-called Rust Belt and oil was king.
The ‘drill, drill, drill’ of course referred to the latter, together with gas, and an escalation of the US fossil fuel extraction programme.
The United States currently has proven oil reserves of around 35,230,000,000 barrels, around 2.1% of the world’s total and enough to sustain the continent for approximately 5 years at current consumption rates.
In addition, according to American Gas Reporter, the US has approximately 264 billion barrels of ‘possible and undiscovered’ but ‘recoverable’ oil, placing it ahead of Russia with a reported 256 billion and Saudi Arabia with 212 billion. Additionally, it is estimated that the US has access to enough dry natural gas to last around 85 years.
At current consumption levels, Infinity Renewables estimates that known global oil-deposits will expire by 2052 although, realistically, we may never run out of oil given the depth of the Earth’s core and the opportunity to discover more deposits. The issue will be whether it is technically and economically viable to mine them and whether, given the impact thus far on climate change, we would ever possibly want to do so.
According to British Petroleum’s Review of World Energy, the world’s gas will last, at current consumption rates, perhaps 90 – 120 years. If we average the difference that takes us to roughly 2124.
As a matter of additional interest, the world’s coal reserves are estimated at circa 1.1 trillion tonnes, potentially likely to expire around 2165.
The conclusion from all of this is that the United States has an enormous opportunity to ‘drill, drill, drill’.
What does that mean in environmental and climate impact terms?
According to the latest IEA (International Energy Agency) estimates, oil and gas operations resulted in 5.1 billion tonnes (Gt) Co2-equivalent in 2022, almost 15% of energy GHG emissions globally. More prosaically, it’s the equivalent of 5.1 billion return trips between Paris and New York by aeroplane!
Although the IEA’s Net Zero Emissions by 2050 Scenario planning expects the emissions intensity of these activities to fall 50% by the end of the decade, if Donald Trump becomes the 47th President of the United States, that could change everything.
Donald Trump faces 91 felony charges across four criminal cases and two civil lawsuits. Clearly that means he will not become the 47th President of the United States so problem solved. Not so apparently. With the withdrawal of Nikki Haley from campaigning, Trump has all but won the Republican nomination, and holds a narrow lead over Joe Biden (Democrat) in the election polls.
There is still some time to go before the November election, but it is not inconceivable that Trump could be elected President once again.
A recent poll conducted by The Wall Street Journal shows 47% of those polled backing Trump and 45% rooting for Biden.
As a final observation, it was widely reported today (11th March 2024), that should Donald Trump be elected as President, according to Hungarian PM Viktor Orban, he will not continue to fund Ukraine’s fight against Russia. From an environmental perspective there may well be gains as a result, but at what future cost? According to the Moscow Times, at the end of 2023 an updated version of Russia’s climate doctrine, signed by President Vladimir Putin, has dropped language that directly links the burning of fossil fuels to greenhouse gas emissions.
