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Currency Forecast For 2019

15th January 2019
Paul Brooks

In parliament tonight

The deal is widely expected to be voted down, by a large margin (100+). The Prime Minister is likely to deliver a statement after the vote outcome. We expect her to announce an immediate intention to seek further changes to the withdrawal deal from the EU. Beyond this, our central case is that the period for withdrawing from the EU under Article 50 will have to be extended. If no acceptable deal can be reached and ratified, we think the next likely step will be a second referendum.

General comment

“Currency markets always fluctuate, all year, every year but Brexit has brought the issue into sharp focus for many British businesses. The sudden drop immediately after the referendum caught out many businesses who were unprepared for the dramatic change in the value of the pound. Even two years on, the shadow of Brexit looms large and will continue to do so. This is leaving a large hole in the profits of many companies but there are ways to make sure that you’re not making avoidable losses. High street banks often charge higher fees and as a standard offer less preferential FX rates than a specialist. You may think it’s only £10 here or there on fees, or a difference of a couple of hundred pounds on an overseas order but over the course of a year this makes a big difference on the balance sheet. Particularly at a time when the pound is so volatile, it’s important to get the best value from every transaction, and get access as often as possible to rates/service, so as to continually negate risk as it becomes apparent.”

Moneycorp: The Worlds Currencies-2019

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